Two Reasons The Polls May All Be Wrong


There is now a growing body of evidence that the polls giving Hillary a six-point advantage may be WRONG, hiding what is likely a very close race for the White House.

+ + Reason #1 Polls May Be Wrong…

First, as ZeroHedge, Rush Limbaugh and others have noted, many of these major polls are assuming that there will be seven to nine percent more Democrat voters than Republican voters (Reuters is showing a 14-percent margin for Democrats!), when the average over the past eight presidential elections is less than four percent.

The Dem-GOP variance shrinks to less than three percent if we drop out the last two Barack Obama elections (+7% for Democrats in 2008, +6% in 2012). The reason to drop ’08 and ’12 is that those elections featuring the first African-American presidential candidate may be an anomaly. We won’t know until after the votes are counted in two weeks.

Here’s the data on two recent polls:

ABC News: variance of +9% Democrats; +12% Clinton
Reuters: variance of +14% Democrats: +4% Clinton

If we adjust the +/- of Democrats to +3% (the historic average over the past eight non-Obama elections), here are the results:

ABC News: +6% Clinton
Reuters: +7% Trump

If the major polls are, on average, using the Democrat advantage of the two Obama elections (+7%), that would skew the results in favor of Hillary by about four percent. Eliminate the Dem/GOP skewing and Clinton’s current Real Clear Politics lead of 5.8 percent mostly disappears.

+ + Reason #2 Polls May Be Wrong…

The second reason the polls may be wrong is demographic oversampling. Because Democrats have such a huge advantage with, for example, African Americans, even a small oversampling of African Americans in the poll could sway the results by two to four percent overall.

The polls generally do not publish the ethnic/demographic breakdown of those being polled, but we now know from the Wikileaks Podesta emails that Democrats have been engaged in demographic oversampling all the way back to 2008. One leaked email specifically calls for recommendations on “oversamples or polling” to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.” The email included a 37-page attachment that detailed strategies to oversample “African-American,” “Hispanic,” and “Native-American” voters in polls, along with other oversamples “as needed.”

+ + What 2012’s Most Accurate Poll Says…

The IBD/TIPP poll, recognized as the most accurate poll in 2012, is currently showing the race to be a DEAD HEAT — which would confirm the Democrat oversampling evidence noted above.

So what to make of all this?2016

Despite the leftist media’s constant drumbeat that Hillary has already won, the presidential race is FAR FROM OVER. The current polling methodology is likely based on the last two Obama elections which may be skewing the results by as much as four percent or more. And the most accurate polls from 2012 are saying the race is currently a dead heat!